Category Archives: Externals

Artificial intelligence and human limits

Are we getting dumber?  Or is stuff just harder?

Both are true.  Between-silo problems are the new bottleneck.  We’re inundated with information, so we take cognitive short cuts.   And “wicked” problems keep getting wickeder.

Take this “invisible art” artist.  She sold a few.*

Real decisions are made in the heart, the gut, based on a good story.  So we’re vulnerable to master wizards: good story tellers.  And, often, we’ll do what they say.

It’s impossible to assemble hundreds of graphs and data visualizations in our heads to make good decisions. It’s a fiction that we can.  So we’re overwhelmed, take short-cuts, but it’s hard to admit.

The good news: we have new superpowers.

Continue reading

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Decision intelligence for data center disaster planning

Much of the world’s information is handled in data centers: nondescript on the outside, indoors you’ll find a din of humming machine in acres of racks.  If an earthquake or other natural disaster should strike a data center, the cost can be enormous.

So spending money on risk mitigation strategies like earthquake-proofing makes sense.

But it’s a tricky balancing act: spend too much for a disaster that never happens, and it’s money down the drain.  Spend too littledatacenter, and a disaster can spell tremendous costs.

A decision model can help.  We built a demonstration of one shown in the video above, at the link here, and in the bottom of this article, for those viewing this online.

Give it a try, it takes about one minute: Continue reading

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Decision Intelligence solutions

Decision engineering Decision intelligence Decison model elements Dependencies Externals For Decision Professionals Introduction Levers Outcomes

My team and I offer decision intelligence and decision engineering to solve your complex problems. Simply put, data is backwards-facing. It’s like watching an elephant’s footprints, rather than understanding the elephant itself. Systems are forward-looking.  There’s no coincidence in the fact that your rear-view mirror is smaller than your windshield. Yet…

Most organizations look backwards, assuming future equals past. This is no longer true. Click To Tweet

So let’s roll up our sleeves together, and take your organization to the next level.

It doesn’t have to be hard.

You still need your data.  It’s always going to be an important tool in validating where you’ve been, and of course, operational data (like a customer’s address) is critical.

But when it comes to making decisions, data is only part of the picture.  Once you make a decision and execute on it, this creates a cascade of events within your organization.  Understanding how the decision leads to an impact…and another…and another…until you’ve reached your objective (or not) may sound like a daunting proposition.  But here’s the rub: you’re doing it already, in your head, every time you think through the consequences of a decision.  Why not get some computer help with that?  Even a little can go a long way.  Because otherwise, you’re facing the fog shown below:outcomes

Here’s what you can expect when working with me to improve your organizational decision making.  Think of this as an “a la carte” menu; some organizations choose the whole bundle, some do one part at a time.  Each has considerable value on its own.

  1. Decision intelligence training. I run half-day to full-week workshops on the core concepts behind decision intelligence.  Here’s a typical course outline.
  2. Company-wide presentation, so everyone knows what we’re up to.  Here are some videos of my public appearances, to give you a flavor of this.
  3. Decision-specific workshop.  I typically work with a multi-functional team.  We begin by aligning around desired business objectives, then proceed through decision specification, design (levers, links, external data, and more), and iterate. We work visually and collaboratively, and often the focus is understanding the links between previously silo’d groups, and modeling the “whack-a-mole” of unintended consequences.
  4. Data assessment.  Usually, only 20% of the data contains 80% of the business value. The challenge is to determine which data contains the value.  Decision intelligence provides a structured and rigorous approach to figuring this out.  If you don’t take this approach, you can waste a lot of time managing data using “operational” methods, where less expensive “analytical” approaches are a tremendously better fit.
  5. Decision model implementation in World Modeler.  You can get a lot out of steps 1-3, but implementing these concepts in an enterprise-class tool is where the big benefits start to kick in.  Sometimes we begin by modeling in Microsoft Excel as well, and often we generate data that can be read by Excel as the model runs.
  6. Decision visualization.  We usually build custom visualizations for our clients.  You can see a few demos, here (for program management) , here (for data center risk assessment), and here (a full-CG decision model visualization).  We build these to your specifications, to meet the needs of your team.
  7. Data and systems integration.  Here, we work with your organization to integrate a real-time decision navigation infrastructure into your business.  Our value proposition: “the best of both worlds”: using our World Modeler platform means that we can built solutions at low risk and lower cost and much more quickly than other companies (indeed, we once built a full bank risk analysis system in under six weeks).  At the same time, it’s fully customized to your needs, as if we’d built it from scratch. Why this is possible?  We’ve discovered what’s required in a general-purpose data and decision management framework, including optimization, data binding, visualization, simulation, and more (read our API documentation here).

Add-ons to the above  include:

  • Additional training:
    • Introduction to R
    • Introduction to neural networks in R
    • Introduction to machine learning in R
    • Building World Modeler custom visualizations
    • Deep-dive decision dependency design
  • Data services
    • Data modeling
    • Enterprise architecture integration
    • Data cleansing
    • Web-based interactive data survey / gathering creation
  • Custom model visualization development
  • ..and much more

So please drop me a line, and let’s explore together whether supercharging your organization’s decision intelligence makes sense for you.

Drop me a line and let's talk!

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Beyond Data (part 1): J. K. Rowling, Shakespeare, and the Sorcerer’s Decision

I rode the train on a beautiful spring day through New England.  Arriving at the station, a few guys from our partner company greeted me happily; we were going to win this one.  We chatted about the customer on the drive across town: “They’re really turning over a new leaf”…”Very innovative”…”Hungry for new ideas”.

When we arrived, it was a big meeting: folks from several departments, some who hadn’t met each other before.  The IT guys carried stacks of paper: the data model…the spreadsheets.  As usual, the first part of the meeting was a data dump, syncing up.  And, as usually happens, it was mostly about data.  Our customer took us through a great database schema on the whiteboard…his colleague handed out reports.  Great!

'The decision is only as good as the data that supports it.' It was bound to be said. Click To Tweet

Because every organization we work with does sooner or later.  But it’s not always true. Continue reading

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Decision Intelligence solutions

Decision engineering Decision intelligence Decison model elements Dependencies Externals For Decision Professionals Introduction Levers Outcomes

My team and I offer decision intelligence and decision engineering to solve your complex problems. Simply put, data is backwards-facing. It’s like watching an elephant’s footprints, rather than understanding the elephant itself. Systems are forward-looking.  There’s no coincidence in the fact that your rear-view mirror is smaller than your windshield. Yet…

Most organizations look backwards, assuming future equals past. This is no longer true. Click To Tweet

So let’s roll up our sleeves together, and take your organization to the next level.

It doesn’t have to be hard.

You still need your data.  It’s always going to be an important tool in validating where you’ve been, and of course, operational data (like a customer’s address) is critical.

But when it comes to making decisions, data is only part of the picture.  Once you make a decision and execute on it, this creates a cascade of events within your organization.  Understanding how the decision leads to an impact…and another…and another…until you’ve reached your objective (or not) may sound like a daunting proposition.  But here’s the rub: you’re doing it already, in your head, every time you think through the consequences of a decision.  Why not get some computer help with that?  Even a little can go a long way.  Because otherwise, you’re facing the fog shown below:outcomes

Here’s what you can expect when working with me to improve your organizational decision making.  Think of this as an “a la carte” menu; some organizations choose the whole bundle, some do one part at a time.  Each has considerable value on its own.

  1. Decision intelligence training. I run half-day to full-week workshops on the core concepts behind decision intelligence.  Here’s a typical course outline.
  2. Company-wide presentation, so everyone knows what we’re up to.  Here are some videos of my public appearances, to give you a flavor of this.
  3. Decision-specific workshop.  I typically work with a multi-functional team.  We begin by aligning around desired business objectives, then proceed through decision specification, design (levers, links, external data, and more), and iterate. We work visually and collaboratively, and often the focus is understanding the links between previously silo’d groups, and modeling the “whack-a-mole” of unintended consequences.
  4. Data assessment.  Usually, only 20% of the data contains 80% of the business value. The challenge is to determine which data contains the value.  Decision intelligence provides a structured and rigorous approach to figuring this out.  If you don’t take this approach, you can waste a lot of time managing data using “operational” methods, where less expensive “analytical” approaches are a tremendously better fit.
  5. Decision model implementation in World Modeler.  You can get a lot out of steps 1-3, but implementing these concepts in an enterprise-class tool is where the big benefits start to kick in.  Sometimes we begin by modeling in Microsoft Excel as well, and often we generate data that can be read by Excel as the model runs.
  6. Decision visualization.  We usually build custom visualizations for our clients.  You can see a few demos, here (for program management) , here (for data center risk assessment), and here (a full-CG decision model visualization).  We build these to your specifications, to meet the needs of your team.
  7. Data and systems integration.  Here, we work with your organization to integrate a real-time decision navigation infrastructure into your business.  Our value proposition: “the best of both worlds”: using our World Modeler platform means that we can built solutions at low risk and lower cost and much more quickly than other companies (indeed, we once built a full bank risk analysis system in under six weeks).  At the same time, it’s fully customized to your needs, as if we’d built it from scratch. Why this is possible?  We’ve discovered what’s required in a general-purpose data and decision management framework, including optimization, data binding, visualization, simulation, and more (read our API documentation here).

Add-ons to the above  include:

  • Additional training:
    • Introduction to R
    • Introduction to neural networks in R
    • Introduction to machine learning in R
    • Building World Modeler custom visualizations
    • Deep-dive decision dependency design
  • Data services
    • Data modeling
    • Enterprise architecture integration
    • Data cleansing
    • Web-based interactive data survey / gathering creation
  • Custom model visualization development
  • ..and much more

So please drop me a line, and let’s explore together whether supercharging your organization’s decision intelligence makes sense for you.

Drop me a line and let's talk!

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