I’m going to write a series of posts about the core elements of a decision model. This one’s about Levers: simulations of things you can change as you make the decision. We might also have called levers choices.
It can be confusing: you’d think that a decision model would produce the choices as output, not as input. Because it’s supposed to tell us what decision to make, right? But things are a little backwards: the right decision is the one for which the levers will set in motion a chain of events, that in the future will lead to a desired outcome. So from this point of view, the action of a lever belongs at the beginning of a decision model, not the end. Continue reading