Category: Decision Analysis

Solving the COVID19 Decision Crisis: Moving from Data-Driven Decisions to Decision-Driven Data

Right now, getting vaccines “into arms” is the world’s greatest pandemic focus.   But everything could change. Says Andy Slavitt, “The headlines we see today…[describe a] massive over-demand and under-supply [of the COVID19 vaccine]…it could...

The #COVID19 Driver’s Seat

I caught COVID19 in March, a few weeks after breaking my arm badly enough to need surgery.  I made it through, but along the way, and with the perspective afforded by a lot of...

Guest Post: The Decision Command Fallacy (Part 3)
How to avoid unintended consequences of decisions in complex environments

In Part 2 of this article, I explained that, without careful thought, intervention in a complex situation will, more often than not, lead to unintended consequences. If we don’t lift our game, I promise...

Bowie and Mack

Why Causal Decision Diagrams are the Most Important New Development in Solving the Most Complex Problems (and what that has to do with dogs)

Lately, I’m surrounded by dogs: mostly service dogs, who are able to learn sophisticated behaviors and help their handlers in miraculous ways. And so I’ve been reading a bit of dog training theory. Surprisingly,...