Looking back on the presidential election of 2012, one view of the Obama win is to attribute it to his team’s understanding of a phase shift in electoral dynamics: Democrats looked at historical turnout numbers and perceived a systemic change; in contrast many believed that Republican certainty in a Romney win was based on a reasonably expected regression to the mean. This is the essential idea behind “data from the future“. We ignore these principles in this system, as in many others, at our peril.
In light of this history, it’s worth asking if the fundamental dynamics of how elections are won is shifting this year again. Continue reading